What would a weekly Bitcoin purchase be worth today? Compare simple dollar-cost averaging with a risk-aware “War Chest” strategy — computed on the full real weekly price history.
+18.3% more BTC than simple DCA, from 2020 to today
$50/wk · 342 weeks · total invested $17,100 · +₿ 0.1098 vs simple DCA · data through Jul 16, 2026
| Year | Smart DCA | Simple DCA |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9,036 | $9,510 |
| 2021 | $13,139 | $13,663 |
| 2022 | $8,692 | $7,097 |
| 2023 | $26,032 | $21,977 |
| 2024 | $60,793 | $52,258 |
| 2025 | $59,056 | $50,708 |
| 2026 | $47,255 | $39,944 |
Historical simulation on real Kraken weekly prices. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is an educational tool, not investment advice.
Both strategies invest the same total amount: your weekly budget, every week, from the start date you pick. The difference is what each one does with that budget.
Simple DCA buys Bitcoin immediately, every week, whatever the price. It is the classic dollar-cost averaging baseline — disciplined, unemotional, and already better than trying to time the market.
Smart DCA (War Chest) reads a composite risk metric first. When risk is high, it sets your budget aside in a cash “war chest” instead of buying. When risk is low, it buys harder — your weekly budget plus a multiplier, funded by the chest it saved earlier. The exact rules are the ones running in the BTC Strategy dashboard, backtested on the full Kraken weekly history.
The composite risk score (0 → 1) blends four signals: deviation from Bitcoin's long-term power-law trend (50%), price versus the 200-week moving average (30%), position in the four-year halving cycle (10%), and 12-week momentum (10%). Each component is percentile-ranked against the entire price history — the same math, on the same data, as the live dashboard.
From Kraken's public weekly OHLC history (BTC/USD), fetched live and covering more than a decade of prices. Results are recomputed on the latest data every time you load the page.
A rules-based DCA schedule driven by the composite risk score: when risk is high, the weekly budget builds a cash reserve instead of buying; as risk falls, the buys are multiplied and the reserve itself is deployed on genuine discounts — harder still on crash weeks. Every rule is fixed and backtested — no discretion, no emotions. The dashboard turns it into your exact weekly amount.
So the comparison is fair. The War Chest strategy never adds outside money: it only redistributes your weekly budget across time, buying less when Bitcoin is expensive and more when it is cheap.
No. It is a historical simulation for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and you remain solely responsible for your investment decisions.