Is Bitcoin historically cheap or expensive right now? One composite score from 0 to 1, blending four price signals percentile-ranked on more than a decade of weekly history — updated every week.
Each component is a percentile vs the full weekly history: 0.00 = cheapest Bitcoin has ever been on that signal, 1.00 = most expensive.
| Year | Year-end risk | Year-end price |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 0.79 | $754 |
| 2014 | 0.31 | $319 |
| 2015 | 0.24 | $430 |
| 2016 | 0.49 | $1,133 |
| 2017 | 0.98 | $15,186 |
| 2018 | 0.29 | $3,886 |
| 2019 | 0.33 | $7,174 |
| 2020 | 0.87 | $36,877 |
| 2021 | 0.74 | $43,410 |
| 2022 | 0.16 | $16,849 |
| 2023 | 0.44 | $42,850 |
| 2024 | 0.70 | $94,381 |
| 2025 | 0.48 | $87,500 |
| 2026 | 0.27 | $66,601 |
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Updated every week from Kraken's full BTC/USD history. Computed on real Kraken weekly prices. The risk score is a historical-percentile indicator, not a prediction. This is an educational tool, not investment advice.
The score answers one question: compared with its own history, how expensive is Bitcoin today? 0 means historically cheap, 1 means historically expensive. It is not a prediction — it is a position: where today's price sits inside everything the market has done since 2013.
Four components feed the score. Power-law trend deviation (50%) measures how far the price sits above or below Bitcoin's long-term growth curve, fitted on the full history. Price versus the 200-week moving average (30%) compares today's price with the market's favourite long-term support line. Halving cycle position (10%) tracks where we are inside the four-year halving rhythm. And 12-week momentum (10%) captures how fast the price has moved recently.
Each component is percentile-ranked against the entire weekly history, then blended with the weights above. The calibration always runs on the full history — never on a filtered range — so a 0.70 means the same thing in 2026 as it did in 2017.
A composite score from 0 to 1 blending four price signals — power-law trend deviation (50%), price vs the 200-week moving average (30%), halving cycle position (10%) and 12-week momentum (10%) — each percentile-ranked on the full weekly history.
Weekly, when Bitcoin's weekly candle closes. The page always renders from the latest Kraken weekly history — the score you see is computed on the freshest closed week.
From Kraken's public weekly OHLC history (BTC/USD), covering the full period since 2013. No sampling, no filtering — every closed week enters the calibration.
Raw signals live on different scales — a log-price residual and a moving-average ratio can't be averaged directly. Ranking each one against its own full history puts them all on the same 0-to-1 scale, and keeps the score's meaning stable across cycles.
No. The score is a valuation thermometer, not a forecast: it says how expensive Bitcoin is versus its own history, and nothing about what happens next week. Rules-based strategies use it to size buys, not to time tops.
No. This is an educational indicator computed from public price data. Past behaviour does not guarantee future results, and you remain solely responsible for your investment decisions.